OTA Dispatch Issue 4, 2021

Oregon Trucking Associations, Inc. Oregon Truck Dispatch WE CAME INTO 2021 hopeful for some return to normal after the previous year of uncertainty on many levels. The vaccines arrived with the promise that they would be the guaranteed pathway back to a restriction-free, fully open environment. In Oregon, we worked toward a high enough vaccination rate to reopen. We reached that point mid-summer, but less than a month later the delta variant pushed us back into masks and restrictions—where we still linger. Talk of—and the eventual realization of—vaccine mandates raised more concerns. Our roller-coaster of a year continued with ongoing pandemic problems and policy changes that created more instability. We now find ourselves closing out the year in a bit of a quagmire when it comes to the supply chain and labor shortages. I don’t know about you, but I’d really like to get off this crazy ride! As we start to review 2021, it’s always interesting (although somewhat futile) to apply the “if only” filter. If only we forecasted the rise of a new virus variant that was worse than the original. If only we had a better understanding of how these vaccines worked, short-term and long-term. If only we had an inkling of how the individual choice to take a vaccine or not would become one of the most politically charged and culturally divisive issues many of us have ever seen. If only we hadn’t underestimated the impacts of extended and increased unemployment benefits that resulted in many choosing not to jump back into the job market. For those not passionate about their work or motivated to contribute and get ahead, getting paid to do nothing becomes extremely attractive. While service and retail sectors have been hit the hardest, I know a lot of us have kept our “Help Wanted” ads up for longer than we’d like—and not just for drivers. If only we had a crystal ball that would have warned us about the growing supply chain crunch. Most of us were aware of it as we realized we couldn’t get the necessary parts to fix our vehicles, or as customer shipping patterns changed. I’m not sure any of us imagined the number of ships sitting idle off our west coast ports, resembling a fully loaded Battleship game board. The “if only” exercise can be helpful when we identify the lessons learned and how they can be applied going forward. While we hope these patterns don’t repeat themselves anytime soon (assuming this current situation ends…eventually), we can appreciate the lessons learned and build on what they’ve taught us, whether we wanted to be schooled or not. Now, as we look ahead to another year, we can take a journey down the road of “what if.” This is a more precarious path because, as we’ve learned, there’s no telling what may pop up. Global pandemic—what’s that? No “Tickle Me Elmo” for Christmas—how can that be? We can plan all we want, but there are certain things we just can’t control; however, that doesn’t mean we can’t anticipate and educate ourselves on the potential “what ifs” we’ll be facing in 2022. For that, I typically turn to discussions with my colleagues and fellow OTA members. As a statewide association that is also part of a national group, OTA’s information highway covers a lot of ground—from national trends to the state legislature. From executive orders and problematic state agency rulemakings to regional infrastructure projects and progressive agendas. OTA stays on top of the “what ifs” that are creeping over the horizon— some more quickly than others. At the moment, it appears that a lot of the issues we’ve been dealing with are tied together and will undoubtedly affect our future decision making. It’s estimated that, due to retirements and others leaving the industry, we’re now at around 80,000 drivers short. Should the federal vaccine mandate be applied to truck drivers, that number will grow even more as an estimated 37% of drivers will leave their jobs. This will be compounded by an overall workforce reduction, either through mandates or those seeking out other opportunities in an open job market. Employee priorities are changing and, as an industry, we’ll need to expand and adjust how we build our workforce in the years ahead. This will then domino into more strain on our supply chain and our businesses. Energy costs continue to rise. State and federal governing bodies are promising new and changing regulations. Oregon continues to pursue an ill-advised climate agenda that forces the use of untested and inadequate equipment that will ultimately devastate Oregon’s trucking industry. We should certainly ask ourselves “what if ” all these less-than-positive predictions become reality. More importantly, rather than waiting and worrying, “what if ” we all come together to exchange ideas, to become the driving force behind these decisions and to build a solid foundation for the future of Oregon’s trucking industry? OTA offers us these 2 Andy Owens OTA Chair “By failing to prepare, you are preparing to fail.” –Benjamin Franklin The “If Only” and “What If” Approach