OTA Dispatch Issue 4, 2020

Oregon Trucking Associations, Inc. Oregon Truck Dispatch Gary Oxley Oxley & Associates LEGISLATIVE UPDATE 6 THE ELECTIONS ARE behind us, the endless annoying TV attack ads have ended, the pollsters were wrong about several Oregon legislative races, the local political talking heads were wrong, the blue tsunami that was predicted for Oregon was a ripple, and the votes have been counted. Or have they? As this edition of your OTA magazine goes to print votes are still being counted in some surprising races. Senate District 10 (Salem) featured a race between incumbent Denyc Boles (R) and challenger Deb Patterson (D). Polling had predicted the incumbent losing by a large percentage, yet as the final tally came out Tuesday, the incumbent was down by only 500 votes. This means that both campaigns are engaged in “ballot chasing,” which involves finding challenged ballots that are likely to favor a particular candidate and making sure those voters get their ballots counted. With a 500-vote margin however, the possibility of the incumbent overtaking Patterson is unlikely. Senate District 27 (Bend) offered a nail biter between incumbent senator Tim Knopp (R) and challenger Eileen Kiely (D). When the votes started being tallied Sen. Knopp led by only a few hundred votes, illustrating just how much the once Republican stronghold has changed. Sen. Knopp won by a margin of 1.6%, and though both campaigns are engaged in ballot chasing, Knopp’s lead of 1,546 votes means his challenger is unlikely to overtake him. House District 31 (Columbia, Washington and Clackamas Counties) surprised all of the pundits. Government Affairs The legislature is still grappling with how to conduct the 2021 legislative session as the state continues to be plagued by COVID-19. Longtime incumbent Brad Witt (D) found himself in a tight race that no one saw coming. Republican challenger Brian Stout came within a few hundred votes of defeating the incumbent, but with Rep. Witt’s lead of 592 votes it is unlikely this challenger can overcome him. House District 52 (Hood River) has provided an unexpected outcome in a race that remains too close to call. Incumbent Anna Williams (D) was challenged by former representative Jeff Helfrich (R), and as we go to press is leading her challenger by only 51 votes. Both campaigns are engaged in ballot chasing, and this seat could go to the challenger and former State Representative Helfrich. What does all of this mean in terms of political control in Salem? The Senate Democrats’ majority will remain unchanged with an 18-12 advantage (unless Sen. Boles is successful in pulling out her race). The House Democrats lost two seats but picked up one, so they will return with a majority of 37-23. This could change if former Rep. Helfrich (R) is successful in his challenge of Rep. Anna Williams (D), which would change the margin to 36 Democrats to 24 Republicans. This would still give the Democrats a super-majority (3/5 majority) in both chambers, which is the margin needed to raise taxes, but it would not provide them the quorum-proof majority (2/3 majority) they were seeking this election cycle. The legislature is still grappling with how to conduct the 2021 legislative session as the state continues to be plagued by COVID-19.